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AustYn

We are back at the historic Martinsville Speedway this week for the NOCO 400. After leaving Bristol Motor Speedway covered in dirt and after Christopher Bell came away victorious, the season has gotten more interesting. The tempers flared at Bristol and one unique story involves Ryan Preece…who happens to be the pole sitter for today’s event…and Kyle Larson. Preece wrecked Larson after stewing over Larson cutting him off in a straightaway early in the race. Radio chatter proved that he did it intentionally, but of course he didn’t admit it after the race. I struggle with my opinion on this…I almost think it is worse to have your team convince you to wreck a driver and do it pre-meditative than to admit it post-race like Hamlin did…Hamlin definitely did it for ratings, but Preece really just wanted to wreck Larson haha! I am glad they didn’t penalize the drivers though and frankly…this will never be a rivalry. Preece will never compete on the level Kyle Larson does (even though he thinks everyone on the track are a bunch of hacks) and the novelty racetrack was the only reason why they were anywhere close. His quote on the radio about the incindent was “No more excuses” well…guess who is sitting on the pole today and guess who needs to show the world you are deserving of this ride…enough ranting, let’s get on with the show.

Martinsville has condensed this race to 400 laps, which will make it more pleasing to the viewers in the sense of time, but I really wish they would’ve kept it at 500 laps. For DFS, it does shake things up a bit…you still have to pick…in my opinion about 3 dominators and 3 drivers who can bring home a solid finish. Qualifying really messed up that strategy though as 4 of the top-10 cars were in the Stewart-Haas stable…Harvick is the only driver worth picking in my opinion, but price points this week have me second-guessing myself. Teams will have 8 sets of tires, but the good news is that tire falloff probably won’t be a major issue. Brakes will be very important and hopefully they hold up, it will be a decently warm day in Martinsville, Virginia. Starting position has always been crucial here and I will be monitoring that…history is semi-important…but a major factor will be how teams have performed on short tracks this year. We really only have Richmond to look at, but that’s enough, you can tell who has speed.

Top Pick: William Byron Starting 8th ($10,800)

The most expensive option is Byron this week. I still like the value…8th starting spot is great for positive E/V and being that he has been the fastest car all season…bodes well for him at Martinsville. Byron won here last year and was the fastest car in 15, 20, 25 & 30 lap runs. Look for the 24 to battle up to the front rather quickly and put on a clinic.

Supporting Cast: A.J. Allmendinger Starting 14th ($6,600) & Corey LaJoie Starting 27th ($5,000)

Yes, you are seeing this correctly, “The Dinger” is great at Martinsville. His average finish is 19th and you have to factor the equipment he has driven and not to mention he was top-5 in 10 and 15 lap runs. Look for the #16 to stay in the top-10 today. Corey LaJoie is my next selection. His practice speeds hovered in the 10-15 range and he has outperformed his expectations this year with an overall average finish of 16th…look for LaJoie to crack the top-20 easily and we have the best value in the field.

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Yacs

We’re at the famous Martinsville Speedway this week and it is always a fun race. The short track has been a staple in NASCAR since the 1950s and has continued to entertain fans for decades. As for last week, we had a good race week. Bristol Dirt is horrible for DFS players, but it was a fun race to watch last week. I don’t like dirt on Bristol and I probably never will, but I will admit it was a good race. Christopher Bell picked up the win. In FanDuel, one guy messing up can ruin your lineup. It was more than one guy last week, but it seemed like nothing was going right, especially for Joey Logano. It’s a shame too because he was fast. Kyle Busch exiting late hurt my lineup too. If those guys would’ve stayed out of trouble, it would have been a great night.

It just goes to show. You can have a fantastic lineup, and everything seemingly fall into place, all of your drivers are fast, and it seems like they’re going to finish well and all it takes is one driver to mess up. It doesn’t even have to be a driver you picked. If it affects one of your drivers in any way, it can ruin your week. It seems like every race this year has been that way for me. So, my best advice this week is to pick drivers who run this track well and don’t get too cute with it. I thought about going risky with a couple drivers, but I passed on it. Get guys that practiced well and have a good history at this track, especially recent history with this new car. You want more aggressive drivers in your lineup too. This is an aggressive track and you have to sometime bump someone to get position. Let’s just hope none of our aggressive drivers are too aggressive.

Previous Winners: William Byron ($14,000) Starting 8th; Kyle Busch ($10,800) Starting 17th

You want a couple guys in your lineup that have won here. William Byron was the last Spring race winner here at Martinsville and it appears that he will be tough to beat again this year. 6 of the last 7 races here have been Top 10s. It is one of his best tracks and he is an aggressive driver that is smart. He knows when to let up and knows when to rattle cages. Look for Byron to be a contender today in the 8th starting spot.

As for Kyle Busch, he wasn’t my first choice, but I settle with him. Settle for a 2-time Cup Series Champ isn't really settling, but he is tough to pass on. The salary and starting spots are good for Busch and while drivers who win the race normally don’t start outside of the Top 10, I think Kyle will run well today. He has been solid in the 8 car, but there are races where he gets into to trouble that he can’t return from. Hopefully he stays out of trouble and keep a cool head. He has won twice and rarely finishes outside of the Top 10 here at Martinsville.

Team 23XI: Tyler Reddick ($8,200) Starting 6th; Bubba Wallace ($7,000) Starting 9th

Neither of the guys at 23XI have great Cup Series histories at Martinsville, but I’m confident that they will be fast today. Tyler Reddick not only had the fast practice time, but he had the fastest 10-lap average in practice. He was almost 2/10 of a second faster than 2nd place. That is crazy fast at Martinsville. It also seems like Reddick has found his groove with his new team. Hopefully he continues the good runs today and like I said earlier, drivers rarely win starting outside of the Top 10. Picking fast drivers starting inside 10th is a good strategy. I think Reddick could have lap leader potential today, along with William Byron.

Bubba’s Cup Series history isn't awesome here, but he has 1 Top 10 that he secured in the Fall last season. As for his NASCAR history here, he is great. In 5 Truck Series races at Martinsville, all were Top 10s, and he won 2 times. 4 of the 5 were Top 5s. He is one driver that is aggressive, but hopefully he can keep a cool head. He has had trouble with that in his career, so hopefully he has a great run and stays out of trouble today. It wouldn't surprise me to see him in the Top 5 regularly today.

Hail Melon!: Ross Chastain ($10,000) Starting 34th

I tried to avoid picking Chastain this week, but his starting spot is too tough to pass on. He is starting 34th and had the 3rd fastest practice lap. He sticks out among the rest of the field in order of their salary this week, because of the starting spot, so expect him to be picked quite a bit. I don’t think it can be avoided though. Chastain had Top 5 finishes in both races at Martinsville last season. I don’t know if he will be a climb to the Top 5 today, but I think a Top 10 is reasonable. Chastain is also a cheaper option than Blaney and the returning Chase Elliott, so again, expect him to be owned quite a bit in tournaments.

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