DraftKings Preview

AustYn

After a wild week at Daytona, the NASCAR DFS world returns to “normalcy” at Auto Club Speedway. Austin Cindric shocked everyone by winning the Daytona 500 and has locked the Penske #2 machine into the NASCAR Playoffs. As usual, many top-tier drivers were involved in accidents at Daytona and will be looking to right the ship at the 2.0-mile Auto Club Speedway. The odds-on favorite for this weekend according to the Charlotte Observer is Kyle Larson at 3.5/1…no shock whatsoever. Alex Bowman won the last event here in 2020, in a totally different world, right before everything shutdown.

Now that we are getting to the serious, skill tracks…it is important to analyze every possible angle at Fontana. We all know that the car is brand new, and the horsepower package is 670 HP with lower downforce. Goodyear is also bringing a new tire and there will be no inner-liners at all in the events this season. The left-sides are going to be the same as 2020, but that side is used more for handling, the right-side is brand new. I have also seen that NASCAR is applying resin to the track. I cannot stand the resin; my biggest reason is that NASCAR has a brand-new car, and they aren’t willing to see how it handles at Auto Club. Teams are going to struggle with that for sure. Also, this track has a rough surface, so the cars will be ill-handling. Atlanta Motor Speedway was loved by fans and drivers, because of the rough surface and the requirement to save tires for the end of the race. The plan for Auto Club is to turn it into a short track in a couple of years, so why waste the money here? I wish they would’ve used the track and not turned it into a Super Mario Kart event. The gimmicks are killing me. Now to end my rant…I will be looking at history and the short practice session today. Passing will still be difficult no matter how much resin is on the track. Look for the top qualifiers to stay there, especially ones that have a proven track record here.

Top Pick: Kyle Busch ($10,400) Starting P3

The driver of the #18 car has been dominant in his career here at Auto Club. With 16 top-10’s in 22 starts and 4 wins, Busch is by far the easiest decision of the week. Kyle also qualified towards the front at Position #3, behind Cindric and Erik Jones, which they won’t hold him off for long. The cars looked wicked in practice, but Busch had the 2nd fastest overall time and 2nd best 10-lap average.

Supporting Cast: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) Starting P17 & Harrison Burton ($6,900) Starting P22

Passing will be very difficult and I have decided to go with 2 drivers that are not starting too far back in the field. Stenhouse had the 12th best time in practice and placed 4th in 10-lap averages. It also helps that he has Hendrick engines under the hood. With a career 18.5 average finish here, all I hope for is for a top-20. Harrison Burton won his only Xfinity start here and track knowledge will be vital in this race. If he can keep all 4 tires on the track, a top-20 is not far-fetched for the #21 Penske powered car. I am thinking that the rookie will not be selected highly, so this would be my sneaky option in a tournament.

FanDuel Preview

Yacs

After an interesting Daytona weekend, we move on to the West Coast swing. Week 2 is rolling along at Auto Club Speedway and as a DFS player, I am glad we have qualifying back. It gives you a chance to grab some value everywhere on the board and you can look for strategies to create the best lineup possible. Last week, we saw rookie Austin Cindric take the checkered flag. The big stage didn’t get to him and he won the Daytona 500. He’s looking to capitalize on that momentum this week and he doesn’t have a better starting view. He qualified in the pole position. We learned last week, that wheels are likely going to be an issue for at least the first few weeks. Wheels were just flying off of the cars at Daytona and I think it will be a recurring issue for a little while.

As for Auto Club, in the limited time that we have seen qualifying and practice, drivers have had a tough time keeping the car straight in the turns. That can be an issue and it can wreak havoc on your DFS lineup. My best advice is to go with what you have at your disposal. The limited practice runs are beneficial and seeing which cars/teams are having troubles can help you form your lineup. Between DraftKings and FanDuel this week, there doesn't appear to be a big discrepancy between salaries, so if you play both, that could be for the best. Austyn mentioned this earlier, but this track has an old surface, and that certainly plays a role in drivers not being able to hold onto their cars, but will we see this often in the race? I guess we’ll find out. It should make for an interesting race and I’m anxious to see how the first real race turns out.

That was Totally Kyle (aka Tier 1): Kyle Larson ($14,000) Starting 13th; Kyle Busch ($13,000) Starting 3rd

With a title throwing it back to the old nickelodeon days, we’re going Totally Kyle with our fist two picks in our lineup. I expect both to be picked by a lot of DFS players, but I think they’re going to be worth it in the end. Kyle Busch has the best average finish here among drivers with more than 5 starts at the track and is the only drivers among the active pack that has multiple wins at Auto Club. If you noticed a trend, you’ll notice that drivers that win the race are normally starting inside the Top 10. I don’t think this is coincidence. Kyle Busch is as steady of a pick as you can get this week.

Speaking of the other Kyle. Kyle Larson looks to capitalize on his Championship winning season and enter 2022 with the same confidence as last season. He is the most expensive driver in both FanDuel and DK, so that would allow you to look at value options lower in the pack, but I think you can definitely find that this week. Larson has won at this track, but that was in the 42 car. We’ll see what he can do at his first race in the 5 car here, spoiler alert, I think he’ll do great. He’s the race favorite for a reason.

Lower/Mid Tier: Cole Custer ($4,000) Starting 21st; Justin Haley ($5,200) Starting 35th

The pick that I really like was Cole Custer at $4,000. He was the winner of the Xfinity series race last night and he’s starting 21st. His practice speed has me a little concerned, but not terribly concerned. He finished 18th in his only Cup Series start, but including yesterday, he has 2 Xfinity wins here. Also, we’re talking $4,000 here. That is criminally cheap for a top quality ride. I like Bubba Wallace’s starting spot and he is very reasonably priced at $6,000. He practiced well, but only ran 3 laps. That’s a little concerning. Most cars ran 10-15 laps and he put down only 3 laps. He was fast though, maybe I’m overthinking that, but it was enough to steer me away.

As far as the lower tier salaries are concerned, Daniel Hemric and Eric Jones seem to be fast this week. I can’t really justify picking them because of their starting spots, but that may be an interesting strategy, because they likely won’t be picked a lot. We’re still going to look in this range though, but with Justin Haley at $5,200. He has a great starting spot for DFS play and he has ran well here in the Xfinity Series. I don’t remember if I mentioned it last week, but I think Kaulig Racing can compete for races this year. I think Daniel Hemric is proving that those cars are fast this week, so I think Justin Haley can ride away this weekend with at Top 20. That’s really all you would ask of him at that price.

Last Pick: Chase Elliott ($13,500); Starting 8th

During last season, it was rare that you could get two top tier drivers and make a confident lineup. With qualifying and practice back for good, this will be a welcomed change. We had $13,800 to spend on our last driver and we’re just gonna go for it, what the heck. Elliott has the best average finish among active drivers, but doesn’t have a win here. I think that could change today and his 8th starting spot will be good for him. We’re picking the 3 highest priced drivers and we’re not looking back. I think Joey Logano is also an excellent pick. Logano has 7 Top 10s at Auto Club and 6 of those are Top 5s. That tells me when he’s running well, he’s running really well. However, like Elliott, he hasn’t secured a win here. I’ll take 3 guys that can climb a little bit and potentially win the race with Elliott, Larson, and Kyle Busch any day of the week and having guys like Custer and Haley who could climb and finish pretty well, I think you have a winning lineup today at Fontana.

NASCAR WISE Power 400 DFS Preview