Half of the league down, half of the league to go. The AFC East is next on the slate and I have to say, this division will probably be the most competitive when all is said and done. You have the Dolphins, Bills, Patriots, and the new-look Jets. It is going to be a tension-filled year for these teams. There were no coaching changes in the division, but some teams will look a little different from last season. Unsurprisingly, the Bills won the division last season, but I can't be so sure that they will repeat as division champs. Keep reading to see what I have to say for the AFC East.

1: Buffalo Bills (12-5)

The status of the division favorites is still unchanged, in my opinion, but it definitely isn't a sure thing. The Bills will look to repeat as the favorites to emerge out of the AFC East, even though the competition is a little stiffer in 2023. There really isn't a place on the Buffalo Bills that is weak. They’re above average in all areas. Also, Josh Allen was playing injured for a good portion of last season. With a healthy Josh Allen, we know this team is a powerhouse. Honestly, Tremaine Edwards was their biggest loss. They added some key pieces like Connor McGovern on the O-Line. Poona Ford and Taylor Rapp to give them some defensive depth and Damien Harris to fill in the void of a departing Devin Singletary. They also drafted pretty well, seemingly. They gave Josh Allen another target in Dalton Kincaid. He was a top TE in this year’s draft. Also, O’Cyrus Torrence. He will add depth to the O-Line and I would be shocked if he isn't starting by the end of the year. The big storyline surrounding the Bills will be the return of Damar Hamlin. He isn't projected to start but will have a meaningful impact on the team. Also, Von Miller will be returning after missing the important part of the season with a knee injury. Stefon Diggs was brought up as potentially wanting out of Buffalo, but said recently, that it wasn’t true at all. Look for the Diggs/Allen connection to be as strong as ever. Also, Gabe Davis had a breakout season in 2022. Look for him to tear it up this year. The Bills will be a no doubt contender this season, so if they don’t win the division, they will almost be a lock for the playoffs.

Difference Maker: TE, Dalton Kincaid

I talked about him earlier, but Dalton Kincaid could be the missing piece to the Bills first Super Bowl. Dalton Kincaid is projected to be the backup TE, but I expect him to be heavily involved in the pass game this season. He is a great pass-catching TE and while Dawson Knox isn't going anywhere, I would say Kincaid is better in that area. We’ll see how much he factors into their gameplan soon enough, but I think he could be a true difference maker for the Bills this season.

2: New York Jets (11-6)

The team chosen for Hard Knocks is also the team that has probably the most buzz surrounding them. The Jets have been bad for a long time. They have had shots to get close to the top, but none like this season. This season is make or break for the Jets. Will Rodgers return to his regular elite self? Will their O-Line hold up and protect him? Is there enough ball to go around for Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook? Will the defense be as stout as they were last season? It is early, but I think all of those questions could be answered with a yes. Aaron Rodgers was added to the Jets this offseason and he is arguably the best player to ever put on the green and white. However, you can't ignore the fact that he will be 40 before the season ends. He doesn’t have a lot of mileage left in the tank. He didn’t have a great season with the Packers last year, although you can't fully put the blame on him. Outside of him, the Packers sucked. The Jets defense will be stout this season. No doubt about it. There are really no glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball. Sauce Gardner has emerged as one of the best defensive players in the NFL in just 1 season. They also locked Quinnen Williams into an extension and he is another defender that jumped into elite status over the last season. As for Rodgers’ targets, they added Allen Lazard to the receiving core, but personally, I think they overpaid for him. 4-yr./ $44M? That’s a lot of dough for a guy that hasn’t proven he can be a top target, but I guess he won’t to worry too much about that. Garett Wilson appears to be a star in the making. Wilson surpassed 1100 yards in his rookie campaign and it appears he is going nowhere, but up at this point. Corey Davis announced his retirement during this preseason and that seemingly came as a surprise to everyone. I was ready to make him as a potential difference maker. I thought he and Rodgers would be a great pairing, but I guess it wasn’t meant to be. I feel like I am rambling at this point, but I need to mention the RB situation. Breece Hall may or may not be available at the start of the season and Dalvin Cook was just signed. I don’t know how they will share carries, but they could be a great help to Aaron Rodgers. If you have two above average RBs that you can count on, you have the potential to be a scary team. Honestly, I would call Hall and Cook top tier or just under, so needless to say, scary. The Jets will be a contender this season, but I am not quite ready to anoint them as the AFC East Champions just yet. They have that potential, but the Bills didn’t change, and the Dolphins got stronger. This division is tough, and it is really tough to say who will be the leader at the end of the season.

Difference Maker: CB, DJ Reed

DJ Reed has the potential to really rack up some numbers this year. Opposing QBs will be reluctant to throw to receivers that Sauce Gardner is covering, so that leaves them to throw towards DJ Reed’s coverage assignment. Reed will get a lot more balls thrown his way and he could make the most of it.

3: Miami Dolphins (8-9)

I hate to disrespect the Dolphins like this, but I simply can't trust them yet. I think they have a team that can win this division, but I need to see proof of that. First and foremost, the health of Tua Tagovailoa is the most important thing for this team. They simply will not compete without him at QB. I think he has shown enough to prove that he is more than capable of leading this team, but it is a miracle that he is still playing after the scary hits that he took last season. Even with the uncertainty of Tua, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill absolutely demolished opposing secondaries last season. They both combined for over 3,000 yards. Also, there are rumors that Jonathan Taylor could be joining the team. If the O-Line holds up, this offense is terrifying for other teams in the AFC. With that being said, their defense isn't bad either. Many people think that they could be a Top 10 defense. I think they have that potential as well. Aside from the Jets possibly, they arguably have the best secondary in the league. A big reason for that is their addition of Jalen Ramsey. Their LB core is pretty solid as well. Christian Wilkins is also one of the more underrated DTs in the game. I think the Dolphins have the potential to be a 13-win team. With that being said, I can't give them that much credit because frankly, I don’t trust Tua can stay healthy. If he does, then I think they could be a great team. I just don’t think he will be healthy all season.

Difference Maker: MLB, David Long

Long played for the Tennessee Titans for the last 4 seasons and I really think he didn’t get the credit he deserved. I thought he was very good, and I hated to see him leave. He should fit right in with the Dolphins defense and make an immediate impact.

4: New England Patriots (8-9)

If the Pats played in any other division, they could easily sneak into the playoffs, but their chances are slim-to-none in the AFC East. This division is just too stout. At first, I had them going 6-11, but then I thought, who am I kidding? They still have Bill Belichick, they will probably not be quite that bad. Their defense will keep them in games and they should honestly be competitive all season long. Why do I have them at the bottom? Well, some team has to finish last and of all of the teams, the Pats offense is by far the weakest. Rhamondre Stevenson is the only certainty on this offense. They went out and signed Ezekiel Elliott just a couple weeks ago and I think that was a good move for them. It is always good to have backfield depth. The big question is, can Mac Jones be trusted. They have been extremely cautious with Mac Jones, but at some point, they have to turn him loose. They have to let him lead and I think we will get to see that a little more this season. He took a downturn last season and I think it will be more of the same for Jones. I don’t think he is capable of being a reliable starting QB. There are worse QBs, but I think they can do better. They have a solid TE core and the receiving core isn't terrible, but not awesome by any means. Aside from Zeke, they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a deal this offseason. He will be their top target and while he is capable of being just that, I don’t think he is nearly the player that he was 5 years ago. Their defense is one of the league’s best, so they shouldn’t have any issues there, but I think offensive concerns will surmount and I don’t think their defense can carry them all season.

Difference Maker: LB, Josh Uche

This one really isn't a surprise at this point, but this guy had a great season last year. Uche had 11.5 sacks and I think he can surpass that mark this season. I wanted to pick either Christian Gonzalez or Marte Mapu, but Gonzalez went down with an injury and I don’t know how much Mapu will factor into the gameplan initially. Uche will be solid for this defensive unit yet again.

Yacs

2023 AFC East Preview