Unlike most of the divisions in the NFL, the NFC South is wide open. If any team gets on a good run at the right time, they could easily win the division. There has been quite a bit of changes within the division. 3 teams will have a new QB leading things. Well, 4 if you count the Falcons, but I don’t. One team has a new head coach and 2 head coaches are looking to improve upon what they started, entering their second seasons with their teams. No team finished above .500 last season in the NFC South and I honestly could see more of the same this season. None of these teams are contenders and none of these teams are expected to make noise this season. Not to say that it won’t be an interesting division to keep any eye on though. In a way, the mystery of who will come out on top is part of the fun. We’ll see how it goes down, but here is the way I think it will shake out in the NFC South.

1: Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

This is a make or break year for Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons. Year 3 of a coaching tenure is usually just that for head coaches. The Falcons have gone 7-10 under the leadership of Smith in both season, so if they don’t improve this season, he may be an OC on another team next season. I don’t think it will be a down year for the Falcons though. They had a solid offseason and I think the young talent on the team will continue to develop. They had a few big defensive acquisitions. Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Bud Dupree, Jeff Okudah, and Calais Campbell are all new Falcons that are expected to start and contribute greatly to the defense. They really didn’t lose significant pieces either. The re-signed Kaleb McGary to maintain that O-Line. They also drafted Bijan Robinson with their 1st Round pick. A lot of people are expecting him to have a massive season. The big storyline for the Falcons though will be about Desmond Ridder. It looks like he has earned the trust of the organization and will be the starter, but more on him later. I expect the Falcons to make a big jump this year. Like I said in the intro, this division is wide-open, and I think it is the Falcons division for the taking.

Difference Maker: QB, Desmond Ridder

I know, it is kinda lame to name the second season QB as the potential difference maker, but I can't think of a bigger difference maker for the Falcons. Sure, I could’ve gone with someone like an O-Lineman, or Jessie Bates, or Jeff Okudah, but QBs are always on the hot seat. Much like Arthur Smith, Desmond Ridder will be on the hot seat to perform this year. Personally, I think Ridder is the real deal. As long as he can remain healthy, I think he will have a solid year. He will have a lot of help on offense. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Jonnu Smith, Mack Hollins, Scott Miller, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Bijan Robinson. I’d say he is surrounded by some great talent. If Ridder doesn’t step up, Taylor Heinicke will be there waiting behind him. He’s not a franchise QB, but we know he can step up and get the job done. I don’t think it will come to that though. Look for Ridder to break out this season.

2: New Orleans Saints (9-8)

The Saints are favored to win the division, but I think they will fall just short. Their biggest story this offseason was acquiring Derek Carr. 150 million dollars later, they have their franchise QB. The Saints finished the season at 7-10 in 2022, but how much will the addition of Carr improve them? I don’t think it will affect them a lot. Because I really don’t think the Saints are a better team than the Raiders have been while Carr was the QB. Also, the Saints have had a bunch of injury concerns. Alvin Kamara is going to be suspended in the first 3 games. Michael Thomas has played only 10 games since 2020. I would consider those the top two targets for Carr. With that being said, there is a lot of positive to focus on. Chris Olave had an impressive rookie season and he will only get better. Jamaal Williams was a great addition. They also have probably the deepest TE core in the NFL. Foster Moreau is their 3rd string TE if that tells you anything. Their defense is always underrated, and I think they will be again this season as well, but they did lose some key pieces to the division rival. David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss both moved to Atlanta this season. For positives though, Cameron Jordan seemingly isn't going to slow down in his age 34 season. The same goes for Tyrann Mathieu as well. Their O-Line isn't awesome, but I think they will improve from where they were last season. If I had to play it safe, they are probably going to be the division winners, but my gut tells me that Atlanta will be better this season. I don’t think adding David Carr is going to improve them immensely.

Difference Maker: RB, Jamaal Williams

Williams led the NFL in Rushing TDs last season with the Lions. He was a big part of their offense and while he is expected to take somewhat of a backseat to Alvin Kamara, I think he will get the majority of the carries in the backfield. He should complement Kamara well and I think the Saints run game will be the best part of the offense. On top of that Jamaal Williams is a great locker room guy. He should thrive in New Orleans.

3: Carolina Panthers (7-10)

Carolina finished 7-10 last year along with the rest of the team in the NFC South, except the Buccaneers. There was a little bit of hype surrounding them prior to the start of the season last year because Baker Mayfield was getting his new start, McCaffrey was looking to benefit from a new QB and it was overall a very positive vibe around the Panthers. Well, that didn’t last long. Baker turned out to be a bust for them, McCaffrey got traded at the deadline, but after that, they outperformed their expectations. It is crazy to think that they almost made the playoffs, but they were very close. This season is different. They decided not to bring Steve Wilks in full-time, which I get, but at the same time, I think he earned another year considering how well he had them playing at the end of the year. Frank Reich is now the Head Coach and they have a brand new QB as well. Carolina moved out of the 9th spot to get their guy. Bryce Young will lead the Panthers this season, but don’t expect him to light it up right out of the gate. At the moment, he doesn’t have a great receiving core surrounding him. They had to trade DJ Moore to get Young, which put them in a tough spot. They brought in Adam Thielen, who is about 4 or 5 years past his prime. Added DJ Chark, who hasn’t really been good since about 2019 and drafted Jonathan Mingo out of Ole Miss. Hayden Hurst will be an option for them, but who knows how involved he will be in the pass game. As for their backfield, Miles Sanders was added, and he will be a good addition, as long as he maintains his health and he is blocked for well. With that being said, the O-Line will likely be an improved unit from last season, but don’t expect them to be anything more than average. As for the defense, it is good, but not great. Their LB core is their strongest unit and Justin Houston was a huge addition for them. Vonn Bell was also a big get for the secondary. I think Carolina will have flashes of brilliance this season and if they do, that is what they want to see. With that being said, I don’t think they will be competitive just yet. They practically rearranged their team, so it will take at least a couple of seasons to settle in. I also think Bryce Young could be worth the risk. The Panthers aren't in win-now mode and you shouldn’t expect them to be either. 7 wins is a little optimistic too, but that is what I am going with for the Panthers this season.

Difference Maker: LT, Ikem Ekwonu

There are plenty of choices with Carolina, but they need to make sure their franchise QB is safe and secure. Ekwonu is tasked with that and I think he is up for it. Ekwonu was selected 6th by Carolina in last season’s draft and while he didn’t have an incredible year as a rookie, you could tell he will be a very good pro. I expect him to make a big leap this year and I think we could be seeing him making a lot of money with Carolina when his rookie deal is done with.

4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-13)

Tampa Bay needs to change the “y” to a “d”. They will be bad this year. No doubt about it. Brady is gone. Gronk is gone. They really didn’t make any significant effort to improve. CB, Jamel Dean and Baker Mayfield were the two biggest acquisitions for the Bucs. Dean was a good signing, but Baker, not so much. Mayfield had a horrible year with Carolina and even though he didn’t make a complete fool of himself in LA with the Rams, he still didn’t perform well. He isn't a starting QB anymore. He barely was one in Cleveland. I understand you just can't go out and replace the greatest QB of all time, I get that. Baker and Kyle Trask aren't the answer though. They will not be competitive with either of those guys. Aside from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, this offense is perhaps the worst in the NFL. Their O-Line isn't terrible, but they will perform a lot differently with Baker or Trask instead of Brady, who was known for getting rid of the ball quickly. Their defense will keep them in games this season, but they can’t be the one tasked with putting points on the board. A bad offense makes a sluggish defense. They won’t be able to catch their breath this season. Their best bet is to trade Godwin and Evans and get a little draft pick capital back. As for the draft this season, they did OK. They got a good value in the first two rounds with Calijah Kancey and Cody Mauch. They should both immediately impact the team. The good times are over for Tampa Bay, for now. Baker will likely be out of the league next season and Todd Bowles could back as an DC somewhere if the season doesn’t turn out well. I could see the Bucs winning anywhere from 1 game to 6 games this year.

Difference Maker: OLB, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

He was their 1st Round selection back in 2021 and has played in every game the last two seasons, but he could really make a difference for the Bucs this year. He had 4 sacks in the last two seasons. I think that number will double this year. Year 3 is a breakout year for a lot of pros and I think that will be the case for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Yacs

2023 NFC South Preview