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AustYn

After the longest Daytona 500 in history, one can argue that the season starts today at the Auto Club Speedway for the Pala Casino 500. Ricky Stenhouse Jr pulled of the ultimate upset at The Great American Race and has now…theoretically…locked himself into the Playoffs. He was not one of the many winners last season, which will make things more interesting this year. This event in Fontana, California is one of my favorites in DFS, because it allows us to gain more knowledge on how the season will unfold. Many questions will be answered after today in determining who will be a force to be reckoned with for the rest of 2023. This track is unique, and I’ll dig into that later, but it is such a skill driven track that you’ll know who is strong and who must work a little harder. JTG Daugherty Racing has to feel great going into California, as they can gain Playoff points at stages when others have to strategize for the win…it truly is a scenario that will benefit the one car team for playing their season.

While rain and…SNOW prevented practice and qualifying, we do have our starting positions set. Similarly to the way 2020 was orchestrated, starting positions are based on points and other factors like fastest laps…anyway it’s a formula that is insane, but Christopher Bell will be in P1 when they drop the green flag. This track has not seen a winner starting outside the top-25 since Matt Kenseth in 2007 and track position is crucial. There are multiple lanes that drivers can utilize throughout the event, and you will see some riding the top lane at the wall at times. Kyle Larson won here last year and will be a favorite among many players today. My strategy for today is to look at last year’s race…being that it was in this generation of the car and starting position. Even though it is difficult to pass here, tire wear is major at this abrasive surface, so the drivers who can manage their equipment will be passing cars at a high rate on long runs, which I anticipate happening. Do not rely on cautions at this track because we won’t see many. Also, there are 200 laps scheduled for this event, plus teams have 12 sets of tires to use, which should be plenty.

Top Pick: Ryan Blaney Starting 9th ($10,100)

This will be a choice that I hope pays off majorly for me. You will not see Ryan Blaney picked at a high rate because of Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott’s starting positions, but Ryan Blaney is solid here at Auto Club. He already has an edge by starting in the top-10 and I expect him to stay there. Another stat that I saw is the fact that he has had at least 5 fastest laps in the last 3 races here, with 38 in 2020. Team Penske always performs well in Fontana. This is a major fade option and I look for Ryan Blaney to win at Auto Club today.

Supporting Cast: Ty Gibbs Starting 23rd ($6,100) & Justin Haley Starting 29th ($5,900)

Picking your bottom tier drivers are what ultimately creates a win or not for you in DFS. With only 200 laps, you don’t have to rely on a dominator so much. Ty Gibbs is priced perfectly at sub $6.5k. Having JGR equipment and the likelihood that he will be trying to have a solid day and not a winning day, I like Gibbs to get a top-20 and that’s all I need. Justin Haley is my next option, I have a feeling if DK doesn’t price Haley a little higher, I will be selecting him a lot this year. He finished 23rd here last season and that’s all we need today. Haley is super consistent and that’s all we ask for.

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Yacs

Week 2 of the NASCAR Regular Season is here and we’re out west in chilly, rainy, snowy Fontana, California. This kind of weather is out of the ordinary in that part of the country, but wouldn't you know it would happen the week that NASCAR comes to town. I’m interested to see how the cars react to this weather, that is, if they can get the race done today. The Xfinity race was postponed until tonight, but it isn't certain if either race will get going today. It is also worth noting that this will be the last race at the 2-mile track. The track as we know it will be torn down and the plan is to make a ½ mile short track in its place. So, today will be a farewell to the big Auto Club.

Last week, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got his biggest win of his career in the Daytona 500. The race went to OT and Stenhouse won in the final lap due to a caution. He was leading Joey Logano by about a half car-length when the caution light appeared. Daytona is always the biggest gamble and last week was no different. You likely had at least one of your drivers in an accident and if you didn’t, you’re very lucky. Auto Club is a little more predictable, but with Qualifying and practice getting cancelled, things are a lot tougher on us DFS players. My strategy today has kind of been forced upon us. With the wacky results at Daytona, things are a little weird in the lineups. A lot of the drivers that you want to pick are starting in the back half of the lineup. So, my strategy will be pick drivers that will climb and finish well in the end. It will be a 200-lapper, so lap-leading isn't crucial, but the problem is that it isn't very common that a driver will win the race starting outside of the Top 10. Things are different with this car though, so I’m not too worried about the drivers that I’m picking today. Let’s get things started here, I’m pretty confident in my lineup today.

Top Picks: Chase Elliott ($13,500) Starting 33rd; Kyle Busch ($11,500) Starting 21st

Chase Elliott will catch the eye of a lot of DFS players with his 33rd starting position and I would venture to say that he will likely be the most owned driver today. Elliott doesn’t have a win here, but he runs very well at Fontana. I would say a Top 10 is almost a lock. He has a 12.2 avg. finish here in 6 races, which is 4th best among the field with drivers starting more than 1 race. I’m not too worried that he hasn’t won here yet, but today could be the day.

It feels weird not seeing Kyle Busch driving the 18 car, but this will be the first week that I pick him outside of driving the former Gibbs car. His starting position should yield great results, but his history here will speak for itself. He has 4 wins here and he has the best finishing position on average among actives. Yes, he will be picked a lot, but don’t worry about that. Get those passing points and capitalize on a great driver being undervalued.

Easy Money: Tyler Reddick ($9,000) Starting 35th; Erik Jones ($8,000) Starting 34th

Looking back at my picks, it will likely be a pretty chalky lineup, but I really don’t care with this race, you have to have some of these guys. Tyler Reddick may fly under the radar for some DFS players. He is starting 35th at $9,000. That is just too difficult to pass on. Alex Bowman and Kevin Harvick are in the same price range and both have won races here. Reddick hasn’t found much success here on paper, but the key phrase is, “on paper”. Reddick runs great here, or at least he did last year until he cut a tire with about 45 to go and it messed him up for the rest of the race. Reddick is with a new team this season, but again, I’m not worried. I think he will run well and finish well today.

This is Erik Jones’ type of track. He really does well at these 2-milers. He is 2nd among active drivers here in terms of average finish, roughly 10th place each time. Even in the 43 car, he has been successful here. Unless something happens where he can't finish on the lead lap, expect him to charge towards the front of the pack. He will likely be picked a lot, but if you want to pick a guy in a similar price range, I think Brad Keselowski could be your guy. I don’t think he will be picked a lot and he could have a very good run today as well.

Last Pick: Austin Cindric ($5,800) Starting 19th

It should be a crime to price Austin Cindric so low today. I would be willing to spend probably 3,000 more on Cindric than his asking price. Granted, he only has one race under his belt at the Cup Series level, but he was fast the last time he was here. That Penske car is fast, and I think he will have no issues getting a Top 10. He just needs to stay on the lead lap at that price and I am very confident that he will.

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