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AustYn

Chase Elliott finally won a race in 2022 which gave all Hendrick Motorsports drivers a win for this season. The #9 machine is also the points leader by a substantial 50 points over Ryan Blaney. Dover is a unique track in the way that it races, but Darlington could possibly be the most unique. I am so glad that NASCAR decided to get Darlington back on the schedule twice this year and hopefully it stays that way. Kyle Larson is the favorite to win according to CBS Sports at 4/1. My sleeper pick is Erik Jones at 50/1…the #43 team has been running great here lately and this happens to be one of Jones’ best tracks statistically.

Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile shaped oval that has unique corners and a small racing surface. The track itself is very wide but utilizing the upper part of the track gives the most power and speed. It has not been repaved in quite some time and the racing surface has gotten rough over the years with the hot, coastal South Carolina weather. Many race fans will tell you that this is their favorite track because every lap you have plenty of action. With the ever-present lug-nut and wheel problem we are seeing week-to-week…it would be impossible to ignore the role that pit crews play this week. My biggest strategy to look for this week is history…I know that we have a new car this season, but I haven’t seen enough discrepancy in performance to change my mind on who can drive here or not. Passing will also be difficult here, so you can be a little more aggressive on picking a driver towards the front of the field in hopes that they stay there.

Top Pick: Kyle Larson Starting 2nd ($11,000)

I tried not to think too hard on this selection…Larson has an average finish of 5.5 at Darlington and it is if this track was made for him. Remarkably enough…#5 has NEVER won here in the Cup Series. In 8 starts, Larson has 7 top-10s and has led over 23% of the laps completed. This could be the weekend that Larson wins and maybe an igniter for the rest of the season.

Supporting Cast: Erik Jones Starting 11th ($7,700) & Ricky Stenhouse Jr Starting 26th ($6,700)

Petty GMS has performed a little better than I expected this season Erik Jones is 14th in the points this season and the NASCAR Cup Series is heading to one of his best tracks. Jones has won here and has an average finish of 10.1. Driving for Joe Gibbs did help those statistics, but I do believe that the #43 team could win this event. My second choice is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Nobody believed that the #47 team would finish 2nd last weekend at Dover, but it happened. His performance has been poor this season, but I do believe that last week will help the JTG Daugherty team come alive. In terms of Darlington statistics…Stenhouse has never gotten a top-10…but I think that the 26th starting spot and the momentum that the team has going into this week will help them get at least a top-20 and that’s all we need.

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Yacs

Not only is it Mother’s Day weekend, but it’s throwback weekend at one of NASCAR’s most historic tracks. Darlington is always an interesting track and I’m interested to see how these cars react to the track. It is a unique track that old and tricky. You have to be paying attention or you’ll smack the wall before you even realize it. Some drivers find great success here while others aren’t so lucky. Over the last few years, it’s practically been a combination of Hamlin, Truex and Harvick winning each time. With the way the season has been going though, I think seeing a new winner today isn’t out of the question whatsoever.

This is where qualifying really works into your advantage. Last season, it was tough because most of the higher tier drivers had high qualifying spots and it made it tougher to pick. Now that qualifying is back, it is still very tough to pick drivers due to the next gen car. Teams that weren’t really competing in previous years are running well. At a track like this however, I think it will play into your advantage to get some higher priced drivers. There are some high-quality climbers this week and I think you need at least one of them in your lineup this week. Also, this is normally a track that has a lot of green flag laps. Picking the lap leader or at least a driver that will be up there consistently will work in your favor. Alright, let’s see what FanDuel has for us.

The Climbers: Chase Elliott ($13,000) Starting 34th; Kevin Harvick ($9,000) Starting 35th

These two drivers are going to climb some spots today unless they get into an accident. Both cars are equipped to run in the Top 10, without a doubt and possibly win the race. Elliott is normally really solid at all tracks, but Darlington isn’t his best. In fact, it’s his worst career track not named Daytona. That doesn’t really scare me though and it’s only because of his starting spot. Considering the fact that he doesn’t do particularly well here could force people to go with someone like Denny Hamlin. Hopefully that is the case.

Harvick has been really solid here throughout his career, but his most recent history has been great. He hasn’t had a finish outside the Top 10 at Darlington since 2012 and hasn’t had a finish outside of the Top 20 since 2008. That’s remarkable. Harvick hasn’t won a race in 54 tries, so he’s due.

Middle of the Pack: Tyler Reddick ($8,800) Starting 10th; Daniel Suarez ($8,200) Starting 20th

You need drivers among the middle to run well to have a successful lineup and I think Suarez and Reddick will do just that. Both drivers practiced well, and I think the Chevys are going to be fast in general today. Suarez doesn’t have the best history here, but I don’t think that will be a huge concern. Reddick has been solid here though and he may be looking for some retribution after that bum deal at Bristol Dirt 3 weeks ago.

Last Pick: Joey Logano ($10,000) Starting 1st

Picking the pole sitter isn’t always the best strategy, but I think you can do that this week. I don’t think he’ll be picked a lot and I think he’ll run well. He hasn’t won here yet in his career but has had some solid finishes. He practiced 2nd this weekend and his teammate Austin Cindric was fastest in practice, so I think it’s safe to say Penske will be fast today.

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