It’s that time of year again and this Sunday will be the 35th Annual WrestleMania. Fans are anxious to watch the biggest wrestling spectacle of the year and this year, it is taking place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. For a wrestling competitor, there is no grander stage in the profession and this year is a historic year, because it will be the first time that women will headline the PPV. Like many sports fans, I have recently started to look at odds prior to a game or a match and today I will look at how often the favored competitor wins at WrestleMania. Fans today complain that the current product is too predictable and at times, I could argue that it is, but WrestleMania is a different animal and I’d like to take a look at the last 5 WrestleMania PPVs and see how often the odds-on favorite won the match. I’m not going to include matches that were announced the day of the event like Undertaker vs. John Cena at WrestleMania 34 or The Rock vs. Erick Rowan at WrestleMania 32. Also, most of the odds that I’ll be looking at are at least a couple days prior to WrestleMania, because odds the day of tend to trend with spoilers.

WrestleMania XXX

WrestleMania 30, otherwise known as the streak-breaker WrestleMania, where Brock Lesnar infamously defeated Undertaker to end what was a 21-match win streak at the PPV for The Deadman. It was intended that Daniel Bryan was going to steal the show, but The Undertaker losing dealt a blow that couldn’t be recovered, not to say it was a bad PPV, it was solid, but to take away something that meant so much to the fans was just too much to handle. This PPV only had 8 matches, which is something that I would like to see again, because this year’s WrestleMania is going to have 16 or 17 and I just think that is entirely too much content to process. The pre-show match was the Fatal 4-Way Elimination Tag Match for the WWE Tag Team Championship. The Usos were favored at -200 and they retained their titles against Los Matadores, The Real Americans, and RybAxel (1/1).

The next match was between Triple H and Daniel Bryan and the winner of the match earned a shot in the main event for the WWE World Heavyweight Championship. Prior to the PPV, it was not a secret that Daniel Bryan was getting pushed into main event status and the odds reflected that. In this match, Daniel Bryan was a -2000 favorite and he won in what was probably the best match on the card (2/2).

Next was a 6-man Tag match involving The Shield and the team of The New Age Outlaws and Kane. This just looks like an odd matchup looking back and clearly The Shield was favored and did win at -800 odds (3/3).

After the 6-man Tag match, they held the 1st André The Giant Memorial Battle Royal, which is still going on today. Rusev was the favorite with 7/4 odds going into the match, but he didn’t even appear in the match. It was speculated that he would enter the match, because he made his main roster debut that year at Royal Rumble, but he was never confirmed prior to the PPV. Cesaro ended up winning the Battle Royal after eliminating Big Show (3/4).

John Cena faced Bray Wyatt after the Battle Royal and it turned out to be one of the best matches on the card. Bray Wyatt was favored at -300 and it looked to be another opportunity for Cena to put over a younger opponent, but that wasn’t the case. Cena won the match and the rivalry lasted for quite a while longer. The feud ended a couple months later at Payback with John Cena prevailing (3/5).

The next match on the card contained the most shocking moment possibly in Wrestling history. Undertaker and Brock Lesnar squared off and honestly, this match just didn’t have a great build up. Lesnar was upset about not being in the title match, but he was offered a shot to face anyone in the company. Undertaker stepped up and the rest is history. The quality of the match was not good and literally no one expected the Undertaker’s streak to end on that night. The Deadman was a staggering -3000 favorite and I even saw some places that had him at -5000. On the day of the event, trends started going in favor of Lesnar, but he was never the favorite heading into the match. It is difficult to pass up on a line like +900 for someone like Brock Lesnar and that is what gamblers had in mind the day of the event. Lesnar ended The Streak and shattered the hearts of many WWE fans by doing so that day (3/6).

The Vickie Guerrero Invitational was next in line, which was a 14-Woman match for the Divas Championship. I am going to be honest, I don’t really remember this match, but I do know that AJ Lee was the top female competitor at the time and a match with 14 competitors that had to end in pinfall or submission that lasted under 7 minutes doesn’t seem like a great match. Also, AJ was favored at -300 against the field at +200. AJ won the match, but the night following WrestleMania, she lost her Divas Championship to Paige on RAW. Apparently this was the only time the Divas Championship was defended at WrestleMania, which is kind of surprising in a way, but not entirely shocking (4/7).

The last match of the night was a Triple Threat for the WWE World Heavyweight Championship. Daniel Bryan won the first match of the night to gain entry into the final match and it seemed like it was going to go his way in the main event also. Bryan was favored at -700 and his opponents, Batista and Randy Orton, had their odds set at +300 and +500 respectively. After the Undertaker thing, it was highly unlikely that Daniel Bryan was going to lose this one and although throughout the match it looked like he was out of it, he emerged victorious and held up both titles at the end of the show. This was a weird time when the titles were unified by name association, but they physically had two belts to represent one. The belts weren’t combined until August of that year when Brock Lesnar won the title at SummerSlam (5/8).

TOTAL: 5/8 Favored Wins

WrestleMania 31

Ever since the WWE went back to PG content back in 2008, this WrestleMania was arguably one of the best since then. It wasn’t too flashy, but the storylines were great. Sting making his WWE debut was the biggest thing going into the show and that was enough to carry the PPV. Sting was comparable to Undertaker in many ways, but for the rival show. Having him compete was a huge draw and the match was probably the best on the card. For that matter, there wasn’t really a bad match on the PPV. The event was held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. All of the 9 matches lasted under 20 minutes and ample time was given for competitors to hit their spots and do what they needed to do in each match. There were two pre-show matches in this one with another Fatal 4-Way Tag match kicking off the pre-show for the WWE Tag Team Championship. Tyson Kidd and Cesaro were the champions heading into the match and were favored at 7/4. I don’t remember the match, but they retained their titles in just under 10 minutes against Los Matadores, The Usos, and The New Day (1/1).

Next, they held the André Battle Royal and Big Show was the last man standing in the ring. Surprisingly, he wasn’t favored in the match as he was actually listed at 12/1, which was fifth most. Damien Mizdow was favored at 5/4 and was the last competitor eliminated (1/2).

A ladder match for the Intercontinental Championship kicked off the show and Bad News Barrett was the champion going into the match. I don’t remember what kind of build that this match had, but Daniel Bryan was the favorite at 3/2. He won the match and became Intercontinental Champion for the first time in his career. Only a couple months after WrestleMania XXX, he had to relinquish the WWE World Heavyweight Championship due to a neck injury that held him out until the Royal Rumble. He entered the match, but was thrown out early, thus creating a deep hatred among fans for Roman Reigns, who won the Rumble match (2/3).

Next was a continuation of a rivalry that was impacted by a storyline injury. Randy Orton and Seth Rollins squared off after having a dispute months prior to WrestleMania. Rollins held the MITB briefcase at the time and was a slight favorite in this match at -140. Orton ended up winning the match, but this isn’t the last we heard of Rollins in the show (2/4).

The most anticipated match of the night was next and it was a classic one. Sting vs. Triple H, WCW vs. WWE it was the culmination of what was the final chapter of the Monday Night Wars. Sting was heavily favored at -700, but looking back, I don’t know why he was quite that high. At the moment, it seemed like a sure thing that Sting would win, but beside the fact that we know who won the match, how was Triple H not favored? This was the ultimate nail in the coffin for WCW and Vince McMahon hammered in the last nail. Looking back, it seems pretty obvious, but they did an excellent storytelling job (2/5).

The only women’s match on the card was next in line and it was the shortest match of the night. Women’s matches still weren’t a big deal at this time and it wasn’t really until the next year that women were seen as serious competitors in the WWE. The team of AJ Lee and Paige was favored at -350 and they beat the Bella Twins in under 7 minutes. I don’t remember if there was anything on the line in this match, but I think it was just a basic storyline. The Divas Championship was still around, but at the next WrestleMania, they introduced the new WWE Women’s Championship (3/6).

The United States Championship match was next on the card involving John Cena and Rusev, and Rusev was the champion heading into the match. John Cena was pretty heavily favored at -450 and ended up winning the title, which at that point was the fourth time he had done so (4/7).

The next segment was an interesting one. Triple H and Stephanie McMahon announced that the attendance for the event was the highest in the venue’s history, which they took the credit for. The Rock entered the ring and had a discussion with the two, then Stephanie slapped The Rock and he brought Ronda Rousey out of the crowd to attack McMahon. Little did we know back then that Ronda would be headlining the same event just four years later and debuting in the year prior.

The Undertaker and Bray Wyatt was the next match and this was coming off of the shocking loss at WrestleMania XXX. There was barely any build to this match, but the Undertaker was favored at -350 heading into the match, a much lower favoring than the year before. He won the match and it wasn’t a terrible match, but they clearly worked at Taker’s pace (5/8).

I’m leaving the main event out of the discussion, because we didn’t know prior to the event that Rollins would cash in his briefcase. Rollins made the match a Triple Threat, but this was a surprise to everyone. Prior to the match, Roman Reigns was the favorite at -170 against Brock Lesnar, but I can imagine that those numbers would’ve shifted if Rollins announced his intention to cash in. So, that leaves the total of favored wins for the event at the same as the year prior.

TOTAL: 5/8 Favored Wins

WrestleMania 32

This was the trickiest WrestleMania to get reliable odds on and this is the main reason that I tried getting odds for a few days prior to the PPV. I didn’t notice a real problem with odds the day of until this one. Someone got word of spoilers and it evidently spread very quickly. Also, some matches didn’t even have odds so, I’m going to work with what I’ve got in this one. With that being said, this was one of the worst WrestleMania PPVs in history. Storylines didn’t really mesh and everything just seemed like a jumbled-up mess. This was about the time I really started to get back into wrestling, so when I watched this WrestleMania in live time, I didn’t think it was bad, but looking back, it was a stinker. This was also the largest recorded attendance in WrestleMania history in Arlington, Texas. There were three pre-show matches and Kalisto and Ryback kicked things off. Why was this a match and why was a title on the line between these competitors? I can’t answer those questions, but I do know that Kalisto was the United States Champion and he was favored at -150. What? There was over a 100-pound weight difference and he was favored? Anyway, Kalisto retained (1/1).

Next was a 10-Woman Tag match featuring Team Total Divas and Team B.A.D. and Blonde. I literally do not remember this and clearly it wasn’t a big deal because there were no odds for the match. Team Total Divas won the match, but I don’t know who was favored. The last match of the pre-show was The Usos vs. The Dudley Boyz. This looked like an intriguing matchup, but unfortunately was another that I couldn’t find odds for. I take that back, I did find odds on the day of, but I’m not going to use those because of spoilers. I would assume that The Usos were favored, but I didn’t want to take any chances. The Usos won the match in a little over 5 minutes.

The show officially kicked off with a 7-man Ladder match for the Intercontinental Championship. Kevin Owens was the champion going into the match and was the favorite at 1/2, but on the day of the PPV, the odds shifted tremendously, but this was after spoilers were announced. I’m going to go with the original, so this one is a loss for the favorite. Zack Ryder won the match and was the favorite on the day of. If I’m not mistaken, I think he lost the title the next night on RAW. I remember picking Zack Ryder to win the match, because of a segment with he and Chris Jericho on RAW the Monday prior to the PPV. I literally just found out today that he was the favorite the day of the show. Unfortunately it will not be going towards a favored win (1/2).

The next match was between Chris Jericho and AJ Styles. The website that used doesn’t tell the exact odds, but I do know that AJ Styles was a heavy favorite and he lost the match. I remember this being a solid match and honestly, it was way underutilized. These are two of the best performers in wrestling history and the hype of these two getting in the ring was good enough to promote the match, much like this year with Styles and Randy Orton (1/3).

Next was The New Day vs. The League of Nations in a 6-man tag match. I vaguely remember this match, but The New Day was slightly favored at -160. The League of Nations ended up winning the match and remember thinking that this team had a ton of potential, but they split not too long after this (1/4).

The next match was between Brock Lesnar and Dean Ambrose in a Street Fight. I remember this match being pretty bad and basically a total squash, even though it lasted over 13 minutes. I found out later that Lesnar hated working with Ambrose and this was the last matchup between the two. Lesnar was favored at -150 and he won. It’s hard to imagine Lesnar not being in a title match these days, but here is one instance, 3 years ago (2/5).

I remember the next match being the best of the night, in my opinion. It was the Triple Threat Women’s Championship match between Charlotte Flair, Sasha Banks, Becky Lynch. This was another weird scenario where odds were fudged on the day of. It was announced on the day of WrestleMania that the Divas Championship was going to be vacated and the WWE Women’s Championship was going to be awarded to the winner of this match. Knowing that information a little further in advance would’ve been a different result, but Sasha Banks was favored at 1/3 a few days before the PPV. Charlotte won the match and became the new Women’s Champion even though she was the Divas Champion going into the match. It was weird, but that is the way it went down. It was a wonderful match though (2/6).

Undertaker and Shane McMahon was probably the most memorable match of the night just because Shane fell off the Cell. Undertaker was a slight favorite at -130 and won the match (3/7).

They held the André Battle Royal next on the card and the winner of the match wasn’t even on the list of odds. Today it doesn’t seem like it would be that much of a shock for him to win, but Baron Corbin was the winner. Braun Strowman was the favorite at 5/4 and he wasn’t even in the match. Again, more weird scenarios that really didn’t make sense (3/8).

Next was The Rock’s 6 second match with Erick Rowan, but this doesn’t count towards the total because it wasn’t an advertised match. The only match left was the main event with WWE Champion, Triple H taking on Roman Reigns. Prior to the event, Reigns was a -700 favorite and the WWE was trying their darnedest to get him over, but it was unsuccessful. He won the match and it was Roman’s third WWE title reign (4/9).

TOTAL: 4/9 Favored Wins

WrestleMania 33

WrestleMania 32 was about the time when lengthy PPVs started becoming a natural occurrence and just like the year before, this WrestleMania was almost unbearably long. I couldn’t really find odds other than those just a day before the event, so there could’ve been spoilers attached to some of these, but I couldn’t really avoid it. WrestleMania 33 was held in Orlando, Florida in the Citrus Bowl stadium. There were three pre-show matches and the first was the Cruiserweight Championship match and Neville was the champion heading into the match against Austin Aries. Neville was also the favorite at -400 and won the match (1/1).

The next match was the André Battle Royal and Braun Strowman was yet again, the favorite, but this time at a rather large -450 odds. He was actually an earlier elimination, which was a shock to everyone. The winner of the match was Mojo Rawley with the help of his friend Rob Gronkowski (1/2).

The last match of the pre-show was a match for the Intercontinental Championship. Dean Ambrose was the champion heading into the match against Baron Corbin. Ambrose was also a huge underdog and came away with a victory. Corbin was favored at a jaw-dropping -1400. I don’t remember the storyline in this feud, but people must have thought that Corbin was getting a push (1/3).

The PPV started with Shane McMahon squaring off with AJ Styles and I remember this basically being a filler match so AJ Styles could have a match at WrestleMania. I also remember that Shawn Michaels was asked to come out of retirement for this match, but declined. Not surprisingly, AJ Styles was favored at -1000 and won the match (2/4).

Next was the matchup between Chris Jericho and Kevin Owens. I remember this rivalry being an awesome feud and Chris Jericho was the United States Champion at the time. Kevin Owens was heavily favored and he won the match at -800 odds (3/5).

A Fatal 4-Way Elimination Match for the RAW Women’s Championship was next on the card with champion, Bayley was favored at 4/15 against Sasha Banks, Charlotte Flair, and Nia Jax. I totally forgot about this match, but now that I’m looking at it I remember it, but looking from a 2019 viewpoint, I’m not really sure how the odds stacked up how they did. Not to say Bayley isn’t a good competitor, because she is very good, but she hasn’t been booked solidly since 2017, much like the winner of the SmackDown Women’s Championship later on in this show. Bayley won the match by the way (4/6).

The next match isn’t going against the total because the match had surprise entries. It was the return of The Hardy Boyz and they won the match and the RAW Tag Team Championships. Knowing this information prior would’ve had a different breakdown in odds, but it is what it is. Next was a Mixed Tag match featuring the team of John Cena and Nikki Bella against The Miz and Maryse. Cena and Bella were favored at -1200 and won the match. After the match, Cena proposed to Bella, but around the same time a year after, they split up (5/7).

An injured Seth Rollins hobbled in a match against Triple H, but the two had the longest match on the card. It was a non-Sanctioned match and Rollins was favored at -600 prior to the PPV. Rollins was clearly going over in the match and he did. It really didn’t do anything for him afterwards, and he really hasn’t gotten a legitimate major title shot until this year’s WrestleMania (6/8).

Randy Orton and Bray Wyatt had a match for the WWE Championship next in the card and I remember it being a horrible match. Bray Wyatt was the champion heading in, but Orton was favored to take the title at -260. They had a camera faced down at the ring and they displayed visuals of unsettling things, which absolutely took any credibility away from the match. Orton did take the title, but it was probably the worst title match in recent history at WrestleMania (7/9).

The result of the next match was a surprise to nobody and honestly the show may have been better off to spare 5 minutes of everyone’s time. It was the final match between Brock Lesnar and Goldberg for the Universal Championship, it was also the first time the championship was defended at WrestleMania. Lesnar was favored at -3000 and the rest is history, because he hasn’t been without the Universal Championship, except for the couple months the Roman Reigns held the title between August-October of 2018 (8/10).

Next was a six-pack challenge for the SmackDown Women’s Championship. Alexa Bliss was the champion heading into the match, but wasn’t favored to retain. I really don’t remember this match, but I remember Naomi winning the title. Naomi and Carmella had the same odds at 11/10, but I’ll still give the benefit of the doubt to Naomi being favored (9/11).

The main event was another match that didn’t appear to go in favor of the fans. This match just seemed like the ultimate Vince McMahon flexing on everyone. Undertaker vs. Roman Reigns. The beloved WWE legend going against the very much hated, at the time, chosen face of WWE. The match wasn’t great and the result angered many fans. This was literally just a simple put-over match, but many people thought this was Undertaker’s final match. Boy, were we ever wrong. The PPV ended with somewhat of a solemn homage to The Undertaker and his career. Roman was favored at -550 and told everyone the next night on RAW that it was his yard now. The main portion of the PPV was all won by favored competitors except the RAW Tag Team Championship match, which was unannounced prior to the show (10/12).

TOTAL: 10/12 Favored Wins

WrestleMania 34

Last year’s installment was an interesting one and is one that we are more familiar with. The event was held in New Orleans, which was also in the same venue as WrestleMania XXX. The crowd was estimated to have 3,000 more people in attendance than 4 years prior, although they totals have been under question over the last few years. This was another one that was difficult to find odds a few days prior, so these are from the morning of WrestleMania 34. The pre-show kicked off with the André Battle Royal and there were two people tied for most favored. Elias and Big Cass both had 2/1 odds going into the match, but neither won the match. The winner was Woken Matt Hardy at 12/1 odds. He had the help of former rival Bray Wyatt and they formed a tag team as a result (0/1).

Next was the Cruiserweight Championship Tournament Final involving Cedric Alexander and Mustafa Ali. It’s crazy to think Ali was just competing for the WWE Championship at Fastlane a month ago and last year he was on 205 Live. Alexander was the favorite at -220 and he won the match. Cedric Alexander is a great competitor and I hope he doesn’t get lost in the shuffle even more than he already has (1/2).

The Women’s Battle Royal was next on the card and Sasha Banks was the favorite at 8/5. Naomi was the last woman standing and her odds were at 12/1 like Matt Hardy (1/3).

The main portion of the program started with the Intercontinental Triple Threat match featuring The Miz, Finn Bálor, and Seth Rollins. The Miz was the champ and this was arguably the best match of the night. The favorite was Finn Bálor at 2/3 and i remember the match being a difficult one to decide on, because all competitors were capable of winning. Rollins won the match as the ultimate underdog at 13/4 and ended up losing the title a couple months later to Dolph Ziggler, only to win it back at SummerSlam (1/4).

From one great match, to another great match, this led into Asuka vs. Charlotte for the SmackDown Women’s Championship. This was supposed to be the moment Asuka took the title. She won the first ever Women’s Royal Rumble and looked poised to become champion for the first time. That didn’t happen. Asuka was favored at -1000, but ended up losing. It wasn’t a match that we were really shocked to see her lose, but it wasn’t expected. Charlotte Flair lost the title just 2 days after the PPV to Carmella, who cashed in her MITB briefcase. Asuka finally won the title 8 months later, but lost it last week (1/5).

The next match was for the United States Championship. Randy Orton was the champion and the favorite at 10/13 odds. The winner of the match was Jinder Mahal, who had 19/2 odds, which was the least of all competitors. I don’t really remember specifics of this match, but I remember Mahal taking the title (1/6).

Probably the most anticipated match of the night was next on the card and it was the one containing Ronda Rousey. Rousey made her wrestling debut in a mixed tag team match and she paired up with Kurt Angle to take on Triple H and Stephanie McMahon. This was a really entertaining match and Ronda blew everyone away with how well she performed. With that being said, it wasn’t a shock that Rousey and Angle won and they were favored at -850. It is amazing to see the progress she has made in just one year and the impact that she has had on the women’s division (2/7).

I couldn’t find odds to the next match and I don’t have a clue how the odds would’ve looked in the match for the SmackDown Tag Team Championship. The Usos were champs going into the match, but the Bludgeon Brothers won the match fairly quickly. I remember choosing them to win, but I don’t have a clue about their odds. This goes for the next match as well, but it was unannounced. It was John Cena vs. Undertaker. Cena called out Undertaker for a month prior to the PPV, but he didn’t show up until WrestleMania. A lot of people thought it was cool that he showed up, but I really didn’t think it was. His entrance was longer than his match, not that I thought he would be in a lengthy match, but I would’ve been content with Undertaker ending his career at WrestleMania 33.

The next match didn’t have odds attached either, because it was a match that didn’t receive a lot of buildup. It was a match that we didn’t know if we would ever see again. Daniel Bryan returned to action in a tag team match with Shane McMahon to take on the team of Sami Zayn and Kevin Owens. Bryan and McMahon won and if they had odds, I’d say they would’ve been the favorites.

Next was Nia Jax vs. Alexa Bliss for the RAW Women’s Championship. Jax was favored at -450 and honestly, I expected more before I looked this up, because I remember the feud being pretty one-sided. Nia Jax won the match and held the RAW Women’s Championship for a couple months (3/8).

AJ Styles vs. Shinsuke Nakamura had a lot of hype going into the PPV and it turned out to be an underwhelming feud. Nakamura was highly favored, because he won the Royal Rumble. His odds were at -450 and after the match, Nakamura turned heel (3/9).

The next to last match wasn’t listed on the odds, because it was an incomplete match filling. Braun Strowman had to pick an opponent to face Sheamus and Cesaro and surprisingly he picked a 10-year old boy from the crowd to be his tag team partner. It was a really cool moment and Nicholas ended being the youngest champion in WWE history.

The main event featured Roman Reigns and Brock Lesnar for the Universal Championship and Lesnar dropped another bomb. Roman was a huge favorite at -850 and Lesnar ended up retaining the title. Many people considered this the worst main event in the PPV’s history. The crowd wasn’t interested, chants broke out calling the match boring and to top things off, Lesnar held the title for 4 more months. It wasn’t that the match was horrible, it was the story surrounding it and the atmosphere that was created. Prior to the match, the PPV was closing in on Hour 5 and the crowd was just exhausted. I can’t imagine the show’s closer at WrestleMania 35 having boredom chants break out and that is reassuring for the WWE, because they have done a great job with this year’s main event (3/10).

TOTAL: 3/10 Favored Wins

5 Year Total: 27/47 = 57.45%

It appears that WrestleMania may be predictable more often than not, but it is not without intrigue. WrestleMania 33 and 34 were outliers compared to the other 3 PPVs and I think that we will be in for a treat at WrestleMania 35, even if it turns out to be predictable or not. The last few were prone to disappointment, but I have a feeling this will be one of the best WrestleMania PPVs within the last 5 years. We shall see though.

Yacs

Sources: Bovada, CBS Sports, Cageside Seats, 411 Mania, and Daily DDT

How Predictable is WrestleMania?

WrestleMania XXX

WrestleMania 31

WrestleMania 32

WrestleMania 33

WrestleMania 34